Reducing disparities in voter turnout

By David Shiga, board member

A glance at a map of voter turnout across the city in the 2023 election shows there are big differences in turnout between neighborhoods. A voter in Squantum, where 54% of eligible voters cast a ballot, was three times as likely to vote as a voter in Southwest Quincy's Ward 4 Precinct 1, where turnout was only 18%.

What accounts for these enormous disparities? To learn more, Quincy Votes! analyzed voter turnout data for each precinct together with demographic data from the US Census Bureau.

Most of the variation is associated with two factors: homeownership and race, which together can account for 84% of the variation across precincts in 2023. As you can see in the graphs below, voter turnout was higher in neighborhoods with (a) higher rates of homeownership and (b) lower rates of racial diversity.

Other possible factors

Although homeownership and race can explain the majority of the variation, they certainly can't explain all of it.

Using the relationships shown by the trend lines in the charts above, we can predict what turnout would have been in each precinct assuming it was determined entirely by these two factors.

The map below shows how actual turnout compares to these predictions. The precinct that deviates the most from the predictions is Ward 2 Precinct 5 (in the vicinity of Walmart), where turnout was 36% compared to the 25% expected based on the trend lines for homeownership and race.

At the other extreme, turnout was just 20% in Ward 2 Precinct 4 (Quincy Point), compared to a trend-line prediction of 28%.

What factors could explain these additional variations in turnout? We investigated a few possibilities in the data but came up empty.

Both income and the length of time an eligible voter has lived at their current address show some correlation with turnout, but both are also associated with higher rates of homeownership. They do not appear to explain any additional variation beyond what homeownership alone accounts for.

There is no apparent relationship between average age in each precinct and voter turnout.

One resident of Ward 2 Precinct 5 said that the precinct has a mix of demographics. The Falls Boulevard apartment complexes on one side of Faxon Park were added to the precinct in 2023, while the other side of Faxon Park has a lot of homeowners in either single-family homes or owner-occupied multi-family units.

The resident thought that the higher-than-expected turnout in Ward 2 Precinct 5 might be thanks to the existence of an active neighborhood association in Ward 2’s Penn’s Hill (south of Kendrick Avenue), as well as the fact that one of Ward 2’s council candidates lives in the precinct. Between these factors, residents of Ward 2 Precinct 5 probably had a half-dozen or more visits from campaigners for candidates in the contested races, which may have helped boost voter turnout.

If you have ideas about what other influences might be at play, we would love to hear from you!

Putting this knowledge to use

Understanding the factors that influence turnout is a step towards fulfilling the mission of Quincy Votes!, which aims to boost civic engagement and participation in elections, especially for underrepresented groups. 

What barriers might suppress turnout among renters? The need to reregister to vote when moving to a new address might be one such barrier. Reminding people of this requirement and making it easier to find out how to do so could make a difference.

The association between race and turnout might have multiple causes. As one example, Quincy has a large Asian population, including a large population of people born outside the United States. Language might be a barrier for some when it comes to registering, accessing information about candidates, and casting a ballot.

Quincy Votes! has previously distributed information about elections in multiple languages, but those efforts have been limited by time and resources. Redoubling these efforts to reach more people could be one way to help lessen racial disparities in election participation. If you are interested in helping with these efforts, please reach out to quincyvotes@gmail.com!